Would an Obama-Bayh ticket save the Democratic presidency?

Most pundits are speculating that Evan Bayh’s dramatic departure from the Democrat Party was a jump from a sinking ship.  Perhaps it was something more strategic…

by Michael Naragon

While Rush Limbaugh and conservative prognosticators spend their time arguing the State media’s assertion that Bayh is a conservative Democrat, and many believe his early retirement as senator from Indiana is an indication that some are abandoning the liberal direction of the Party, I believe this could be a move made in view of the Big Picture.

Though I currently live in Georgia, the majority of my life was lived in Indiana, so I am familiar with Bayh’s career.  As son of Birch Bayh, Evan had a meteoric rise through state politics.  He became governor in 1989 and served for eight years in that capacity.  Bayh’s tenure as governor was predominantly centrist, as he pushed for favorable tax laws–including Indiana’s largest ever tax cut–and managed a profitable Hoosier economy.  His need to rule as a moderate Democrat came from the fact that he served a schizophrenic state: the northern portion, including South Bend and Gary, was urban, unionized, and heavily Democratic;  the central and southern portions of the state were far more conservative and Republican.

He was elected to his father’s former U.S. Senate seat in 1998 with 64% of the vote and re-elected in 2004 with 62%.  He has continually been discussed as presidential material with his Midwestern popularity, good looks, and excellent track record for electability.  According to some polls, he was already leading his re-election bid by 20 points and had amassed $13 million for his war chest.  In view of this, it’s understandable why many would question his departure.

To hear him explain it, Bayh left the Senate because he was tired of the gridlock–gridlock, of course, that his party and its overwhelming majority had caused with its unpopular policies.  But, given his votes since the election of Barack Obama, Bayh was a party player, siding with the president on every occasion.

“If I could create one job in the private sector by helping to grow a business, that would be one more than Congress has created in the last six months,” Bayh said.

He also has advised that the People vote out the ideologues in Congress, on both sides.

In doing so, he has set himself up as an outsider–someone who, like the majority of Americans, has become disenchanted with Washington.  The question remains:  to what purpose?  My theory is simple.  The Democrats are not blind, nor are they unintelligent.  They see the handwriting on the wall in 2010, and will do what is necessary to protect their interests in the Congress and the Presidency.  In addition to being progressive ideologues, they are also survivalists.

So, rather than assume that Bayh’s take on Congress is disenchantment, for a moment take into consideration the possibility that this is a calculation by the Obama administration.  The State media has gone to great lengths to describe Bayh as a “conservative” Democrat, a creature which seems to exist in folklore along with the griffin and the unicorn.  For a day or so, I wondered if Bayh might not be positioning himself for the 2012 race, but, of course, that could cause a deep rift in the Democrat ranks.  Instead of Obama’s job, however, perhaps it is the vice presidency Bayh seeks.

How often has the current vice president, Joe Biden, unwittingly contradicted his boss?  How often has he been an embarrassment to the administration, to the point where there have been rumblings to drop him from the ticket, using “health reasons” or some other seemingly legitimate ruse.  At this point, Obama’s chances as a two-term president seem slim, given the conservative victories in Virginia, New Jersey, and Massachusetts.  Would an Obama-Bayh ticket in 2012 help to sway some of the so-called Reagan Democrats and bring them back on board with the president against whatever challenger he may face?

Consider the possibilities.  By 2012, Bayh will have been out of Washington for two years, working in a private sector job, creating wealth and, by his own admission, seeking to create more jobs than Congress.  If he is brought back in as Obama’s running mate, he will be seen as a voice of opposition, one who cannot be bought, one who is not an ideologue.  He could be used to win over the undecided and moderate vote of the Midwest.  He has a track record of tax cuts and fiscal responsibility, plus the executive experience as a state governor.  Biden cannot give anywhere near the political assistance that Bayh would provide.

For all the reasons he has been considered in the past as a presidential possibility, Bayh would make an excellent vice-presidential choice.  Then, as a virtual incumbent, he would be in prime shape to make a run at 2016, provided the economy was not in a complete free-fall, which is a possibility.  As an outsider who has shown he will stand up for whatever political principles he holds dear, he could disavow responsibility for the Obama mess and distance himself from the liberal ideology of Pelosi, Reid, and the Messiah.  Far fetched?  Perhaps.  But I believe the Democrats see the direction of the country, and they may be trying to hedge their bets for 2012.